2024 Virginia Election Recap
Former President Donald Trump has completed his comeback, winning reelection to the White House in convincing fashion. Votes will continue to be tallied in the days to come, but President Trump appears to have picked up enough states and electoral college votes to firmly secure victory.
While many pundits and polls projected a Trump win leading up to election night, it does come as something of a surprise that it appears that every major swing state, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, went red.
Republicans did not just enjoy success in the presidential race on Election Day. They also appear to have picked up enough seats in down ticket races to maintain control of the House of Representatives and flip control of the Senate. In the latter, Republicans successfully flipped seats in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio while defending closely watched seats in Florida and Texas.
As of 12 p.m. on Wednesday, November 6, 2024, President Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 277 electoral votes to 224. President Trump also leads in the popular vote with just over 71 million votes to Harris’ 66 million.
Despite President Trump’s strong national performance, however, Virgina remained Democratic. Vice President Harris appears to have won the state with 51.58% of the vote, while United States Senator Tim Kaine successfully fended off Republican challenger Hung Cao 54.05% to 45.76%.
For more information on the Presidential, Senate, and Congressional races in Virginia, please see below.
Presidential Election:
Donald Trump/JD Vance (Republican Party) – 46.36%
Kamala Harris/Tim Walz (Democratic Party) – 51.56%
Jill Stein/Rudolph Ware III (Green Party) – 0.74%
Chase Oliver/Mike ter Maat (Libertarian Party) – 0.43%
Cornel West/Melina Abdullah (Independent) – 0.20%
Claudia De la Cruz/Karina Garcia (Independent) – 0.18%
Despite a late push from the Trump Campaign to drum up support in the Commonwealth, particularly in Southwest Virginia, ultimately Virginia remained safe for Vice President Harris. Across the board, 2024 turnout ended up below 2020 figures, but it was still enough for a Harris victory.
While Virginia still remains a purple state – all three statewide offices are currently held by Republicans while Democrats maintain a narrow majority in both the House of Delegates and Senate – it does continue to trend more and more blue. Virginia has now reliably voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate in every election since 2008.
United State Senate:
Tim Kaine (D) – 54.04%
Hung Cao (R) – 45.78%
Democratic Senator Tim Kaine was elected to his third term in the United States Senate, a nearly 9.5-point victory over Republican challenger Hung Cao. Interestingly, Senator Kaine tracked ahead of Vice President Harris by nearly 3.5 points, reflecting his continued popularity in the Commonwealth.
Senator Tim Kaine has been a steady presence in Virginia government and politics for three decades now, having served on Richmond City Council, as Mayor of Richmond, as Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, and Governor of Virginia before first running for and winning election to the United State Senate in 2013.
Mr. Cao is a relative newcomer to Virginia politics. He has not previously held elected office and has only run for office once before, an unsuccessful 2022 campaign for Virginia’s 10th Congressional District against Representative Jennifer Wexton.
United States House of Representatives:
1st Congressional District
Rob Wittman (R) – 56.74%
Leslie Mehta (D) – 43.26%
Incumbent Congressman Rob Wittman was reelected in convincing fashion, winning by 13.5 points. Congressman Wittman has continuously served the reliably red 1st District since winning a special election in 2007.
2nd Congressional District
Jen Kiggans (R) – 50.94%
Missy Cotter Smasal (D) – 46.80%
Robert Reid (I) – 2.16%
In Virginia’s tightest Congressional race, Incumbent Representative Jen Kiggans managed to narrowly defeat her Democratic challenger, Missy Cotter Smasal. Congresswoman Kiggans, a former State Senator, was first elected to Congress in 2022 after upsetting incumbent Democrat Elaine Luria.
3rd Congressional District
Bobby Scott (D) – 69.73%
John Sitka III (R) – 30.07%
Longtime 3rd District Congressman Bobby Scott defended his seat again on Tuesday night, winning by a sweeping 39+ point margin. Congressman Scott has held this seat for over 30 years now after first being elected to the House in 1993.
4th Congressional District
Jennifer McClellan (D) – 66.86%
Bill Moher (R) – 32.93%
Freshman Representative Jennifer McClellan has been reelected to Congress in a landslide, winning by over 34 points. The 4th District, which covers most of the Richmond metropolitan area and extends South to the Virginia-North Carolina border, has remained reliably blue since a 2016 court-ordered redistricting. Representative McClellan served for 15 years in the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates before first running for Congress in a March 2023 special election.
5th Congressional District
John McGuire (R) – 57.65%
Gloria Witt (D) – 42.35%
No Congressional District in Virginia has seen as much turnover in recent memory as the 5th, and this year was no exception. Earlier this year, Virginia State Senator John McGuire successfully primaried incumbent Representative Bob Good, and he has now won the general election over Gloria Witt. Once sworn in, McGuire will be the sixth Representative for this district in just 15 years. With McGuire joining Congress, this will now trigger a special election to the State Senate to fill his unexpired term.
6th Congressional District
Ben Cline (R) – 63.5%
Ken Mitchell (D) – 34.48%
Robby Wells (I) – 1.91%
Ben Cline has easily won reelection to Congress in the 6th District, soundly defeating Democratic Challenger Ken Mitchell. Cline, a veteran member of the Virginia House of Delegates, has served the 6th District for three terms now after succeeding longtime Republican Congressman Bob Goodlatte.
7th Congressional District
Eugene Vindman (D) – 50.94%
Derrick Anderson (R) – 48.79%
With Representative Abigail Spanberger opting not to seek reelection in favor of running for Governor of Virginia in 2025, the 7th District quickly became the most intriguing Congressional race of the cycle for the Commonwealth. Eugene Vindman prevailed in a 7-way primary for the Democratic nomination, while Derrick Anderson won a 6-way primary for the Republican nomination. Coming into Election Day, the 7th was eyed as a real tossup district, with Republicans focusing on the district as a potential pickup opportunity. As the polls closed, and votes were tallied late into the night, ultimately it was Vindman who prevailed.
8th Congressional District
Don Beyer (D) – 71.71%
Jerry Torres (R) – 25.69%
David Kennedy (I) – 2.44%
Bentley Hensel (I) – 0.9%
Congressman Don Beyer coasted to another election night victory in the 8th, defeating Republican challenger Jerry Torres in a landslide. Congressman Beyer has served the 8th District since first winning election to Congress in 2014. Jerry Torres is a relative newcomer to electoral politics, having never served in office before but having previously unsuccessfully run in 2022 in Florida’s 14th Congressional District.
9th Congressional District
Morgan Griffith (R) – 72.83%
Karen Baker (D) – 26.99%
In another unsurprising race, incumbent Republican Morgan Griffith defeated Democratic challenger Karen Baker in Virginia’s 9th Congressional District. The 9th is a deep red district that comprises most of Southwest Virginia and was never at risk for an upset.
10th Congressional District
Suhas Subramanyam (D) – 51.94%
Mike Clancy (R) – 47.70%
In late 2023, three-term Congresswoman Jennifer Wexton was diagnosed with progressive supranuclear palsy and announced she would not run for the House again. This kicked off one of the busiest primary seasons in recent memory, with four Republicans and a dozen Democrats running in their respective primaries. Mike Clancy eventually won the nomination as the Republican candidate while Suhas Subramanyam, a current state Senator, earned the Democratic nomination.
The 10th District has been reliably Democratic for quite some time now, though this race ended up being a bit tighter than many expected. Turnout was up from 2022, but Subramanyam won by just over 4 points as compared to Wexton’s 6.5-point win in 2022 and 13-point win in 2020. As was the case in the 5th District, this result will now trigger a special election to the State Senate to fill Subramanyam’s unexpired term.
11th Congressional District
Gerry Connolly (D) – 66.48%
Mike Van Meter (R) – 33.08
In another race that was never close, Congressman Gerry Connolly won reelection to the 11th Congressional District. Congressman Connolly has represented this district, which covers much of Fairfax County in Northern Virginia, since first winning election in 2008.
Ballot Measures:
Proposed Constitutional Amendment
Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended so that the tax exemption that is currently available to the surviving spouses of soldiers killed in action is also available to the surviving spouses of soldiers who died in the line of duty?
Yes – 93.03%
No – 6.97%
Currently, the Constitution of Virginia allow the General Assembly to provide a tax exemption to the surviving spouse of a soldier who was “killed in action.” The above constitutional amendment sought to expand this exemption to soldiers who “died in the line of duty.” This broadened definition still includes killed in action but also expands to the deaths of soldiers who may not have previously qualified as having been “killed in action.”
Virginia voters overwhelmingly approved this ballot initiative.
Other Key Ballot Initiatives:
Shall casino gaming be permitted in Petersburg?
Yes – 81.53%
No – 18.47%
After several years of failed attempts to approve a casino in the City of Richmond, Petersburg voters took to the polls to decide that fate for themselves. Voters there took to the polls on Tuesday and approved the measure by a sweeping margin, outvoting casino opponents by 63 points.
Impact on Virginia Races in 2025
While there were no elections for state offices in Virginia this year, 2024’s results will have a major impact in 2025, when Virginians will return to the polls to vote for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and the entire House of Delegates. Traditionally, Virginia voters have elected a Governor of the opposite party of the President that was elected the previous year. In fact, since 1977, the only exception to this rule was Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s successful 2013 campaign that followed President Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection.
While primaries are many months away, thus far the Gubernatorial Election is shaping up to be between Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D) and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R).
The House of Delegates elections will also prove to be fascinating to watch, as Virginia voters may come out to the polls looking to send President Trump a message. In 2017, Democrats picked up 15 seats in the House, narrowly missing out on taking the majority by just one seat. In 2019, Democrats flipped another six seats and took control of the House, giving them total control of state government (House, Senate, governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general).
Given the national results from last night, it’s safe to say that Democrats will like their chances for big pickups across Virginia in 2025.
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